I am a real estate broker, not a financial planner, tax expert, or an attorney at law. However I have been around a while, since 1951, one of the baby boomers. The advice in this article comes from intuition, common sense, and experience. You can choose to take it or leave it, but I believe for those who take this advice they will benefit in the next decade.
There's a lot of talk of a double dip recession, and one that will be much more severe than the one we are currently experiencing. Economists, the president, and the fed chief can make all the claims they want that we are in recovery, but I'm not buying it.
There's over 15 million people out of work, unemployment is near double digit, and when counting the underemployed with those who quit looking the rate is nearly 17%. There are 4.3 million families either in foreclosure or significantly behind on their payments. Nearly 50% of home owners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
This does not constitute a recovery. Because big banks and Wall Street are making money again while the middle class and small businesses are getting hammered is called recovery, doesn't make it so.
My intuition tells me when we have a strict ideologue for a president and is governing from the far left, trouble is not far away. It has happened with every liberal president. Clinton was saved by a Republican congress balancing budgets, and by the tech boom when PC's and the Internet exploded on the scene.
President Obama believes in wealth redistribution, that is taking the property of the producer to give to the non-producer. He is proposing that the Bush Tax Cuts for the wealthy not be extended. Arthur Laffer renowned economist predicts that this action alone will trigger a double dip recession.
What concerns me most is the national debt and the continued deficit spending. We just exceeded $13 trillion in debt. Forecasts are now to exceed $19 trillion by 2015. Who is loaning us all this money? Mostly foreign investors. What happens if we enter a double dip? Wouldn't these investors stop buying our debt if our economy turns down?
When that happens the demand for the dollar will diminish. How will we fund our soaring debt? The Fed will print the money which always leads to inflation. How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates above the rate of inflation. What happens to our debt payment when interest rates go up? They increase exponentially and we could be facing interest payments exceeding a trillion dollars a year, not leaving much to run the country or pay for national defense.
The cost of government is increasing under Obama as he has expanded entitlements to record highs, taken the work out of the Clinton welfare to work program, increased discretionary spending 27% then calls for a freeze, and will have spent over $3 trillion more than the government received in taxes in just two years.
Add to this my baby boomer generation that are paying taxes today but will begin retiring shortly becoming collectors of benefits. Social Security is in the red today, six years earlier than predicted. This will place a huge strain on the budget. Add in the cost of Obamacare and the deficit will grow by trillions more.
Folks this is not good. Common sense tells me there are more bad things that can happen than good. There is a real possibility that the housing market will go into a bigger decline than during the first recession, and that the stock market will collapse as early as next year according to Laffer, and others. Roubini says in an article "US Nears Disaster as Euro Zone Faces Zero Growth" on June 9th.
The primary problem we have is that we are being led by a group of people that don't have any private sector experience, are either Marxist in ideology, or simply egg heads from Harvard, Yale, or Princeton who live in theory without any concept of reality. This is a group that is incapable of overseeing a free market economy. They believe government is the solution which will lead us straight into the next economic collapse.
If you are honest with yourself you know that these massive deficits, and debt are unsustainable, the ponzi scheme has to crash at some point. With the president governing from the left, taxing more, regulating more, and beholden to environmental extremists which will drive up the cost of necessities such as gas, food, and energy, disposable incomes will fall drastically. This leads to falling consumer spending. This results in higher unemployment when demand for products declines.
When will this house of cards collapse from the weight of these irresponsible economic policies? Next year? The following year? Maybe not even until after 2012? The one thing my gut tells me, although I don't know when it will happen, I believe it will.
If all these dire predictions come true and we get a 1980's dose of inflation and double digit interest rates, it will be a long slog out of the progressive swamp back to prosperity. A journey European socialist countries are just beginning. At least they have seen the light. Entitlement societies are unsustainable. Why must we repeat their mistakes when God gave us the greatest system in the world? Why must we veer off course and away from our founding principles?
Here's my advice, take it or leave it. If you have a mortgage that's one percent or higher than the going rate, refinance. If you have an adjustable rate first or second mortgage, refinance into a fixed rate immediately.
If you have not purchased a home and are renting, buy a home now. When inflation hits, and interest rates go up due to the falling value of the dollar and inflation, rents will go up accordingly. Buying today, and locking in a fixed rate loan below 5% at a payment you are comfortable with, will protect you from those astronomical rental prices that will come. Whether home prices fall or not is immaterial, you will be able to afford to keep a roof over your head.
Quite frankly I don't know how many people didn't buy a home with record low rates, and tax credits from a benevolent Uncle Sam using taxpayer funds. If you're out there, you should seriously heed this advice or the next recession will be much harder to live through.
I'm as optimistic as anyone, and don't desire you to translate this message as a doom and gloom pessimistic point of view. This is probably the most realistic, emotionless, objective, truthful advice you will receive. Listen to others that are in denial, pay too much for a home, continue renting, or make any of the other myriad of potential mistakes, and you will pay a price someday.
There's a difference between Pollyanna, and reality. Whether you heed my advice or not, best wishes in all you do.